Hi, Sweden currently is the greenest country on the planet, getting more than 48% of its energy from non-fossil sources.

The bulk of its renewable share comes from hydropower and biomass.

Sweden can fuel its entire economy on biomass, and so it is ready to become the world's first post-oil country.

The country has a program aiming for that goal. And it is steadily on course to get there.

In a disaster scenario (say, the Peak is near), it can rapidly and easily get out of fossil fuels and use biomass instead. Biomass can be readily co-fired with oil, gas and coal. So it can make the transition extremely fast in all of its fossil power plants. It's also very easy to transform the resource into liquid fuels for transportation.


No other modern country on the planet is so successful in the renewables sector (other countries: the UK: 2% - a total disaster; France: 10%; Germany: 8%, etc... Nobody even comes close to Sweden). Sweden will be the best and possibly only place worth living in a post-peak era.

It also happens to be the most successful economy on the planet (mainly given its high taxes and welfare system), but that is another matter.

I always thought Brazil would be one of the best places to be in a post-oil period. No?

Brazil is nice too, but it doesn't have the strongest government institutions, needed to deal with radical socio-economic transformations.

Sweden absolutely rules on smart government - perhaps the single most important requirement to survive PO.

And the Swedes are very social people, which makes things easier too. In Brazil, you have a highly segmented society, which will result in social warfare. In Sweden, you have a very egalitarian social structure.

I'll be in Stockholm Mon Dec 8 – Fri Dec 12 btw...

Your dog wants socialism...

Yeah but this figure applies to electricity only! Sweden gets 51% (according to EU statistics) of its ELECTRICITY from renewable sources. The rest is almost entirely from nuclear.

When we're talking transport fuel, sweden uses over 93% gasoline/diesel while the the rest is renewable.

Enjoy your stay.

And make sure to visit Vaexjoe, the world's super-famous first no-oil town (entirely run on biomass combined heat and power for home heating and electricity, biogas for transport, and some solar). All buildings are made from wood. They're very pretty.

80,000 people living there. Comfortably, warm, eco-friendly, and above all: without a single drop/blub of oil or gas.

How much of that biomass is sustainable (i.e. avoiding deforestation)?

Ehh hold your horses here!

I'm living in Sweden and really we are not that great off.

The hydro-power is not something new has been that way since 1930 or something like that. So we haven't made that big a change. Never power is nuclear and newest is some biomass but that is noway close to hydro or nuclear.

This place is really really long and we get lot's of road transports 100% of it is running with oil fuels.

The railway is already crammed full and the government is skeptical about expanding it in any meaningful way. Only the other day we had a big outage in the power supply to the railroad around the capital due to low capacity in converting power from grid into railway voltages and frequencies. So we won't be able to use this to any greater extent.

We have a quite small farming areal and it's short seasons so we don't get spectacular results but I believe it is enough to feed the people if we can keep the agriculture powered with fuel. Again nothing big is happening here yet, still the normal diesel fueled combined harvesters and tractors. Only thing I have seen is a biogas tractor being tested on TV. This is a really great idea as it is possible to extract biogas from manure and still use it as a Fertilizer. But again one tractor and a really really long way from being used in any scale at all.

And if the Golf Stream gets into trouble we are a ice-cube.

Good things then? Well we got lot's off forests and we are used to harvesting it in a sustainable way. When trees are cut down almost always new trees are planted. The problem could be if the soil is getting bad, but as the trees grow quit slowly (60-70 years between harvesting i believe) it takes quite long time which gives the soil some time to recoup. But still most of this industry is powered by oil fuels.

In theory you could produce biofules from the trees but no effective process for this exists today what I know about and that is not from lack of trying.

The town where I live uses biogas to power all the town busses, this got several benefits but also a few problems. First it is a renewable fuel and we can produce it from waste or manure as discussed above and it made the city air ALOT cleaner. This was really noticeable compared to before when the busses where running on diesel. Problems is that first a big part of the biogas in this city is produced from waste from a big slaughter house. This in turn depends heavily on the oil-powered agriculture. Secondly I have been driving a biogas car a one time to Stockholm(the capital) and there is quite along way between filling stations and this part of the country is still among the best. And expanding this network would take years. And again if we use all the biogas from agriculture to buses and cars what will we power the tractors with?

So sure we are maybe better off then most places in the world but to think that we are in any meaning full way are on our way into a post oil future is just crazy talk.

And yes we are socialist viewed from most other countries with the high taxes and all. And this has it pros and cons but so does the night watch state also so see it as a trade off not that one model is supreme.

Ninja edit:
The 93% MrMonkey talks about is probably including cars where it is quite a common too see ethanol and biogas driven variants on the streets. But I have so far never seen a single long distance truck powered by anything else but diesel.

It's 100% sustainable. Sweden's forest are all man-made (except for some micro-patches that are well protected by 10 foot concrete walls). All of these forests have been cut, replanted, recut, for ages. (Like most forests on this planet, that is).

According to latest research, the Gulf Stream seems to be much more stable than some have feared. If I remember correctly, most climatologist foresee a probable 25% slowdown at 6 C of global warming - and by then, some cooling would only be welcome, even in the far north!

There's no need to produce biofuels from trees in mass scale, as you can simply run vehicles on wood gas. You certainly have enough wood to run a modest tractor, truck and bus fleet, as we did during WW2, with enough left for heating.

But in the long run, this new Scandinavian "wood economy" could be threatened by the climate change, if it accelerates as quickly as some experts say and it's 1.5 times faster at northern latitudes, as most models suggest. I don't know how abrupt a warming the forests are able to withstand before they wither. We might not see coniferous trees gradually give way to deciduous species, as during a normal, slow climate shift, but a sudden collapse of the entire ecosystem. This warming and accompanying drought would also threaten food production - and bring millions of refugees from southern countries that are hit even harder.

But during the next decade, Sweden could be an almost optimal place to face PO and global economic collapse, if the government and citizens show enough determination and responsibility during the crisis and are able to drop the welfare entitlement mindset. And I hope your many immigrants will be able and willing to integrate into the society as responsible, active citizens. As J.H. Kunstler noted, no ethnic or cultural minority may demand special treatment when the system goes through the transformation. Lycka till!

Yeah but then we are quite far from the almost business as usual case that I read into the OP.

As for the forests I'm uncertain how bad it would be with higher temperature. In the south of Sweden we got mixed forests and in the rest of the country it's pine and spruce. I think the pine and spruce should manage quite well in higher temperature. Fairly quickly will more other types of tree start to go further north. The big problem as I see it is if the rain increases or decreases a lot.

About immigration I don't think that will be any problem at all. They bring a lot of skills that we in this country have forgotten a long time ago. About special treatment I don't know what Kunstler meant with that but I don't see any special treatment with regards of immigrants. So I see no risk in that they wouldn't integrate as long as we allow them, this is the major problem today, have been and probably always will be.

Lastly I don't know what you mean with "welfare entitlement mindset". I guess you in some way are after the people that the current political majority is hunting because they are not working. Of course this is a problem but I believe the problem is lack of jobs and people with the wrong/to little education. If you are after welfare in a more wide meaning the I think you are dead wrong. If the crap hits the fan then either a country can survive as a nation and help each other or it will be total chaos and luck will determine more then anything else.

Any ways I agree that Scandinavia is a pretty good place to be. Hopefully it won't be that bad!

Tack, det samma!

cellulose...is now,

http://www.utexas.edu/news/2008/04/23/biofuel_microbe/

Again, sorry Larlin, the lack of light is a major concern, not just for the short growing seasons, but, for state of mind. Most of the Swedes I know take a step back, and openly admit that many Swedes have a very real and serious problems with depression.

Survival, has more to do with if you can keep your mind stable, than the size of your gun.

In terms of Brazilian prospects, recently the "planet earth" supercomputer model has shown that this place (large part of rain forest) is turning into desert in a few decades.. Basically the formely moving rain clouds now stay above the south atlantic ocean where it drops back into the ocean, land/rain forests not getting the water. Innitialy they thought the model was bogus but the real in situ data from 2005 onwards confirmed that. Just another "we are screwed" message but this one is one of the most serious, I'd say on the par with the looming himalaian watershed crises (melting glaciers), few bambillion people w. nukes will get water flowing only several months per year in a few decades..

So much for the "fight against global climate change" and peacefull survival of the homo ape in general..

PS Sweden = great country and people, but good luck with facing the hords of incomming economic/PO/climate change migrants. I think you should drop Nato and form with Norway and Finland some closer military union focused just on this prospect..

Nice to see haven't seen that before, but as they say in the article "there is a lot of work ahead before cyanobacteria can provide such fuel in the field.". So until I can see such a plant working in Sweden I will not count on biofuels from the forest to save the day. In a other place they are even more careful "if production can be scaled up.". But thanks for the link it is a interesting technology and the paper industry should be really interested as well.

About the light yeah people get depressed from time to time I'm not sure why this is and have no idea if it is connected to the light. But anyway people lived in this darkness in the Dark Ages, during the both World Wars(not nearly as hard in Sweden as in the rest of Europe but still lacking almost everything due to little or no trade) and so on. The whole population didn't go crazy or commit suicide during these times. From this I feel relatively sure that we will just be fine in this respect and I don't think that the light will be any factor. I can see why the darkness would seem like something that would make you go crazy. Remember that we have lived with this all our life it's not that bad.

Where in my posts did you see me writing about big guns as a solution to anything? In Sweden we got quite harsh gun laws only guns allowed are for hunting and for sports. I think this will be a good thing. And as I wrote above either we survive together as a country or most of us will die. In this the guns will really only be in the way. We got quite many hunting rifles in Sweden this could be a problem.

What really worries me is if people have get to used to all the modern "I wants". If they can't cope with the changes when they arrive but this is the same in every industrialized country.

About Brazil well if it's not turned into a desert due to global warming aren't the market forces about to do that anyway?

Well, I assumed that by now, with the global economy collapsing and even IEA accepting oil decline, business as usual would be out of the question everywhere. Maybe I'm so used to doom predictions that even survival on a national level (continuation of society, escape from anarchy) seems like luxury.



Agreed. I hope trees, plants and animals adapt but a very abrupt temperature rise (such as 6 degrees Celsius in a decade) may bring unexpected challenges, even if the outcome would be mostly positive for Scandinavia with a similar rise during a century or two.



A few years ago, I read a story about a school in a Southern Swedish city (Malmo or Gothenburg), attended mostly by immigrant children, that had to close for a time as the teachers refused to go to work because of continuous harassment and crime. Too many pupils simply had absolutely no respect for teachers or their classmates. The reporter was interviewing a couple of immigrant youths who were hanging around on the streets, loud and obnoxious, listening to their brand new iPods, apparently paid with entitlements. The youths said the problem is that the society has no respect for them! I just hope that this attitude is not prevalent among large segments in Sweden.

I'm NOT claiming that immigrants or foreigners are a problem per se. The problem is the attitude "I deserve everything the state can give with no activity, effort or even respect for common rules on my part". This kind of thinking probably exists also among many natives, in your country as it does here.



Again, I agree. Solidarity and common effort are a prerequisite for the survival of the society as a whole. Therefore all citizens must realize that they probably can no longer expect anything more than only the most basic necessities from the government. And even those necessities will be granted only to people who comply and participate in the hard work of transforming the infrastructure. All subcultures and lifestyles must conform to the new, frugal situation.

I think we pretty much agree =)

The attitude I will get everything from the state is not uncommon in some parts. I also think this extends into I should be able to get almost everything with my money. I think the last is much more common and a much bigger problem.

About doom and gloom yeah on this site it is pretty much all you see but there is some things to keep in mind. Mostly of the really doomish people are in the USA where the problems may become a lot bigger then here. In mosts parts I also believe that a lot of people is a bit over the top. I do believe that some sort of central government will survive in Sweden and I can't see why at least state governments wouldn't survive in the USA. Basically I don't really believe in the whole riot situation of course this is quite dependent on how bad our leaders will act.

Maybe I have to high hopes in the human nature.

In my town, Trollhattan ,50 000 inhabitants, all busses and garbagetrucks and most of the town-owned cars are fueld by bio-gas, made from peoples garbage in a plant locally.

The sewers doesnt need pumps.

Train capacity is expanding, 2 rails instead of one.

We have in Trollhattan quite a lot of hydropower

A lot of farmland and a lot of forests,

The city have for a long time had bicyklesroads that gets one everywere. They still expanding them.

No public building or any houses attaced to the towns heating-system ,fjarrvarme, uses any oil, and havent been for years.

The drawaback is that trollhattan has a large industrial base that mostly will be gone in a few years, the to major industries are SAAB, cars, GM owned, and VOLVO AERO, Air-plane engines,

But overall, well do ok, and I feel no need to get out of here

A little dose of reality for ya... Do you think everyone else that is slippin down the toilet will just let you sit in your little green eden? If your lucky you will be invaded and if your not lucky you will be nuked.

sorry buddy ...you just don't have the numbers to win.

My gut feeling is also that life in Sweden will be sort of OK, like 10-30 years ahead, even if we picture a situation where global oil production has been constantly decreasing for that period.

By life being sort of OK, I mean that nobody is starving and everyone is able to live in a warm place in winter (we have some homeless people today, so I do not mean exactly 'everyone', but not many more than today).

Recreation trips to Thailand and the Canaries may be out, and imported fruits and veggies in winter will be too expensive for most. Much more expensive meat too, so people may actually start eating livers and tongues from animals again. And cook hens that have ended their egg-laying lives, instead of bying chicken filets from Thailand. Since fewer people will have a job, and food will be expensive, people will learn to cook from scratch to save money. Porridge costs less than musli and cornflakes. Many people will grow some veggies in their home garden.

Gasoline will be expensive, so more people will bicycle to work and for errands. (You can transport lot of food on a bike and even more in a bike-trailers. Or car-pool. All rail systems (streetcars, subways, commuter trains, distance trains) will be full of passengers who will have to put up with delays. Hopefully the government will not put more money into Volvo and Saab and motorways, but instead support rail road building. Maybe we will see horses pulling carts on the roads, instead of cars pulling horse-trailers. I have read that we today have more horses than we did in the early 1900s, except of course today's horses are for sport and recreation. It still means that we have many people who can handle horses, and riding horses can be trained to pull a wagon. It will take a while until heavy horses have been bred to greater numbers. We have lots of sailboats and sailors too, and in some locations, across lakes or to/from islands, it might make sense to transport goods, for example wood, by sails. Hopefully, the system will allow unemployed people to earn a little bit of money on the side. Swedes might pick our own berries, not people from Poland or Asia.

Small local dairies will make a come-back.

Some expensive medical treatments may not be affordable, so the average life-span may decrease. Except obesity will disappear as a problem.

I think the situation is very comparable to WWII, where imports were cut off. Granted, in the 1940s, we were a lot closer to the age-old agricultural system, so that transition was easier. Today we have the advantage of a wider variety of technology, particularly in information, so it will be easy for people to get advice in new situations. More, and more easily available, scientific knowledge helps too.

Finance minister Borg is talking about the very hard times ahead, meaning less consumption in the next few years. I think we can live quite well without four-wheelers, new cars, new TV-sets and the latest kind of fashionable imported food. As long as people are not seriously hungry and cold, I do not think that things are terrible bad.

nocar

Here in Maine we are like the Sweden of the US. We have lots of forests, hydropower and seacoast. We are attatched to the rest of the US, however. I would love to live in a country where people were actually planning for a low energy future. Maybe when Obama gets in there...

In the meantime we have some great people here in this state. I think they do well in a crisis. We had a 2 week long power outage due to an ice storm and people stayed calm. They pitched in and helped out.

The rest of the US may not stay so calm, however.