Has anyone noticed what has happened in Mexico?

During the late 1930's, Mexico only had about 18 million people. Now, there are probably close to that many illegal Mexicans located within the United States with 110 million or so remaining in Mexico.

Thats about a 7X increase in 70 years. If it were to continue for the next 70 years Mexico would have more than twice as many people as currently does the United States. It can't and won't continue.

How much of Mexico is arid, high elevation land that has little potential for human carrying capacity? A lot.

If millions of desperate people were pushing against a wall a lot of the people would be crushed but the wall would fall.

This was non-responsive. And as usual, it was yet another example of you trying to change the subject. I thought this thread was about agriculture.

What's wrong? You cannot explain how, under the supposedly "depleting" farmland theory, that farmlands in the Old World can produce season after season for thousands of years? One would think, even under low-tech agriculture, that the soils of the Nile River valley would have "depleted" long ago. And yet they've been producing for some 5,000 years, and are still going strong. Amazing!

I too am "concerned." I am concerned that people like you succeed in duping fence-sitters into believing they should worry about impending crises and problems which aren't going to occur, or at best won't occur for decades, or hundreds or even thousands of years at the earliest. "The sky is falling! Our farmland is being depleted! We are running short on oil, and nothing can replace it!"

Not.

Okay. If you say so. You are the expert. I resign my title and bequeath it to you Oily.

But with that crown comes great responsibility. You must find fault with every new concept, look for BAU to continue at any cost, depend on minor technical 'improvements' and 'efficiencies' to mend a broken system. You must continue to look to yesterday's 'experts' for solutions to today's problems. Depend on 100-year old philosophies to fix 21st century problems. You will be expected to to search out better science, more technology, smarter geniuses, increased funding. With just a little more expertise we will rid the world of terrorists, hunger, death, and taxes.

Here's to Ronald Reagan!

>>> LINK <<<

^ wrong of2, don't you know we are going to all die horrible starving deaths this year? don't you know the guvemant is lyin' to us just to keep us distracted? Get with the program OF2!

Thank you OF2! and AD

For keeping this thread alive. IT will be easier to debunk the USDA crop est than the BLS birth/death model labor report (0 jobs created last decade, 23 million added to pop., 13 million to the labor force). Now where were we...oh yeah 54+million starving Americans.

US Farmers Plant Fewest Wheat Acres Since 1913
US farmers plant fewest winter wheat acres since 1913, Kansas seedings lowest since 1957
WICHITA, Kan. January 12, 2010 (AP) link

US 1913 Population: 97,225,000

US 1957 Population: 171,984,130

Which also beggars the question, if the USDA can't accurately tell us what size the crops are that have already been harvested, the how far out are their planting intentions likely to be in the spring? We've now got to wait until March 31st to get the USDA's first stab at getting those right for corn & beans. And whilst we're on the subject, what about their winter wheat area which came in lower than the lowest trade estimate, and almost 4 million below the average trade guess of 40.916 million acres?
Posted by Nogger at 09:06

Spring food crisis may trigger economic collapse - This Blue ...

4 days ago

"The good news is that even with 2009 being the worst harvest in human memory, there will still ..... saying that further surveys in states where the harvest was delayed may lead to these figures being amended in March. ...

thisbluemarble.com/showthread.php?p=180459 -

The ONLY entity saying we had a record 2009/10
crop-USDA.

As it counts 10 MMT lying on the ground.

Ethanol is in short supply in Brazil after processors there switched to producing more sugar (and less ethanol) following the recent surge in prices of the sweetener. In addition the heavy rains that disrupted the harvest in Brazil in late 2009, also reduced the sucrose content of the cane. Posted by Nogger at 12:21.

Nogger's Blog
Ethanol is in short supply in Brazil after processors there switched to producing more sugar (and less ethanol) following the recent surge in prices of the sweetener. In addition the heavy rains that disrupted the harvest in Brazil in late 2009, also reduced the sucrose content of the cane. Posted by Nogger at 12: ...
nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/ - Similar -


Wheat price poised for further fall, says Goldman
The risks for wheat prices are "skewed to the downside" even after this week's fall, the bank says, noting robust supplies and limited demand

(s) found
numbers lie: 1/13/2010
it would be nice if corn made 155 bu and wheat made 42 bu but in real life they dont. it would be nice if the price was better than it was in 1975. but on goes life.......

A/The comment that went with this Hayes , KS article:

http://www.hdnews.net/Story/crops011309

The keeper:

For now, however, he said, farmers are struggling to harvest what remains in the field.

Olson said it's a relatively small amount -- mostly corn and grain sorghum -- that remains in the field.

USDA surveys in states where the harvest was delayed may lead to these figures being amended in March....just like the NonFarm
Reports, extend/pretend/forget.


Obama Advisor Promotes ‘Cognitive Infiltration’
[W]e suggest a distinctive tactic for breaking up the hard core of extremists who supply conspiracy theories: cognitive infiltration of extremist groups, whereby government agents or their allies (acting either virtually or in real space, and either openly or anonymously) will undermine the crippled epistemology of believers by planting doubts about the theories and stylized facts that circulate within such groups, thereby introducing beneficial cognitive diversity.

Famine April Fool's Day as what's happening in Flyover Country
on the Farm bears ZERO resemblance to the Imperial City
and looks more like the Kulaks relationship with Stalin.

So you really believe the USDA is lying? Would not be the first time the government ever lied but the USDA come on. Corn and Soybean futures are tumbling. If true the USDA managed to fool some of the best market insiders. A small fortune could be made buying these futures if shortages are months away but who is buying? This crisis you are peddling doesn't quite pass the sniff test.

Look at it this way. Why would the USDA be the only Gov't Agency not lying? Note these farm articles. See any quotes from actual farmers? And watch this-farmers in order to collect insurance must make a 'good faith effort' to harvest. But it costs $150 in diesel alone, every day to move a combine. Tearing it up in the muck and then getting busted by Bunge for trash grain even as the $/bu is being forced down.

I know farmers are going belly up. That land is about to change
hands. And America is going to wonder-'why all the belly aching
from farm country. Why they just came in with the 2nd largest
harvest ever and look at the prices."

Even as the US can't ship soy/corn to China fast enough.

And Florida this past week did not help.

Note the patten there. If this happens Florida could be in trouble.
It's getting cold in Florida. Strawberries and oranges (always
from Florida, you never hear about their corn[May-June].

But then, we never get the update. That Florida's harvest has been
wiped out.

And over and over. Google FEMA agriculture disaster counties.
See how many there are, how you get declared a disaster county,
then tell me how you get a US Record Harvest in 09/10.

I love the way I post an article about record corn and soybean crops, and mcgowanjm has to respond with news about wheat.



Here is the reason for your lowest-since-1913 wheat plantings. Ending stocks are the highest since the late 80's.


Source

Thanx again, AD. I love the fact that we're talking about Peak Grain following Peak Oil.

Of all the grains, wheat is the most plentiful. And India/China are in trouble. With Wheat. So is the Ukraine. And Australia. Down 35%.

But you want to talk about corn and soy You bet.

A bushel of soy costs $16.00 in China. $10 in the US. Weird, huh?

We have never shipped more soy/corn in the first 4 months of a crop year. 10 MMT of corn/soy still in the field, which the USDA is still evidently counting.

>>> LINK <<<

Martell has a different take on India:

The vegetation index in Northwest India has been persistently bad, reflecting stress throughout December and January. Sub-par wheat yields seem likely in the normally productive irrigated wheat states, Punjab and Haryana. The Pakistan wheat potential looks terrible in the northern growing areas bordering India. January was particularly dry.

http://www.martellcropprojections.com/

>>> LINK <<<

But wait - there's more! >>> LINK <<<

"Brazil's grain production to rise 36% in 10 years

Brazil's grain production will rise 36.7 percent in the next decade, reaching 177.5 million tons by 2020, the country's Agriculture, Livestock and Supply Ministry said on Thursday.

The ministry said that about 75 percent of the extra production will be due to an increase in productivity caused by the evolution of agricultural techniques. The remaining 25 percent will be the result of an increase in the cultivated area in the country, which currently reaches about 60 million hectares and will reach 69.7 million hectares by 2020.

The Ministry also stated that the grain production will most likely grow at its current rate in the next ten years."

How can they know that?

They can't "know" it, it is a forecast. Just like future oil production.

where and when did you heard this one , there was no mention of it here in the papers production was up but we exported even more

from this month WASDE link
..............................beginning.prod......import..feed....total...exports..end.
..............................stocks.................................................................stocks
Australia 2007/08 :...3.95.....13.57......0.12.....3.50....6.50....7.49....3.65
Australia 2008/09 :...3.65.....20.94......0.13.....3.75....6.85...14.7.....3.14

world production is holding the line ,so far but a bad northern season can whip out the ending stocks in a year that's what happened in 2006/2007

Please do not put periods as spacers before and after the content of a post--you are wasting bandwidth. Thank you.

Last edited by Ferretlover on Wed Mar 10, 2010 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Added quote notations per COC 2.1.5 Add content responsibly: appropriate formatting.

there are mountains of food in the world, only a lazy doomer who is holding tight to his rosy glasses doesnt notice it.

The world is also being predicted to be burning 50% more each each year 30 years from now.

Al Bartlett's lecture about the final acts of the yeast in the petri dish is instructive.

The end stocks trend is interesting
that's the amount left in storage when the new harvest roll in , it is a bit muddled by the north hemisphere south hemisphere phase shift and a rather broad spread of harvest from Texas to the Volga lands
the grain race also matter , some are late growers

there is usually from two to three months stocks in hand ,
it's difficult to have much more storage is wasteful and expensive

recently there have been a few close shave
1976 was a disaster , the old USSR had to eat crow to get grain from the U.S. they were desperate
2006 was bad , a lousy harvest in Australia Argentina because of drought and a pathetic one
in Europe because of flood

on top when there is a squeeze price shoot up and farmers rejoice ,
they put plenty of acreage to wheat for thew next planting
only to see the prices drop like stones

in disgust they switch to a better crop ,
a few year later a bad season send everybody on the merry go round again

the trend is not so good , the years of plenty are getting scarcer ,
while during a normal year end stocks tend to shrink
this happen over four five years , consumption increase steadily
while growing play catch up in step fashion

the catch up is getting rarer and weaker every cycle before 2000 million tons was a marvel
now it's the baseline .

increasing food production by 50% is , carefully considered ,quite impossible with the present system