Iran: Keeping oil prices low in 2010? - Feb. 11, 2010

I'm all for cutting ties with middle-eastern oil entirely if you know how we could do it without inviting a massive malthusian die-off. I also don't like the way we rewarded China after Tiananmen square with most-favored-trading-nation status. Unfortunately the world makes for strange bedfellows. I'll take 15 year olds being lashed over nuclear armageddon, though.

I've just explained to you how touching off proliferation in the middle-east and elsewhere by allowing Iran to go nuclear (hence rendering the NPT useless) is a matter of US (well, global) national security. You don't agree, so be it. But to phrase such concerns over proliferation as being purely a matter of coddling Israel or providing a profiteering opportunity to the military industrial complex is unreasonable.

Unfortunately, history will have to show which viewpoint, that of appeasement and isolationism, or engagement and carrying a big stick, lead to a better outcome. Like I said before, there are no do-overs. A conventional war, however bloody, is far preferable to nuclear armageddon.

I'm quite certain, though, that if the missiles do fly, those such as yourself will still be blaming the US and Israel for it having come to that. That won't be much of a victory if the planet is under one big mushroom cloud for having gone YOUR way.

No, Iran is not a functioning democracy as we saw with the corrupt elections.



That's not saying much. Even Saddam had "elections".



The situation is hardly as simple as you make it sound. This issue has been percolating for many years now, and Iran has been given countless ways to save face and come out smelling like roses. They've squandered every opportunity, not unlike the Palestinians. Never fail to miss an opportunity I think the saying goes. That's what happens when a country's leadership is blinded by hate and fear. They can't let go of it when the time is right. That bad karma has a way of accumulating.

A few years ago under GW Bush the international community was well in Iran's corner. You know, WMDs weren't found in Iraq. And here comes accusations about Iran. But step by step, inch by inch, the Iranians have done nothing but provide more and more reasons for the international community to be suspicious about their motives. Iran has few friends in the world outside of ideologues like you who want to merely use Iran to make political potshots at the US and Israel.

hey, come on mos, you must be kidding!
do you really think US are preparing the invasion of iran just because iran isn't a perfect democracy, for human rights? do you really think iran is going to attack israel with atomic bombs? come on, do you know any muslim at all? They're just like us, they don't care about other religions, they're just normal people, like us that want a rich and easy life. america should be a model for them rather than an enemy!
to make you inderstand what i mean, i talk about italy because i know very well the issue: what would you say about the 95% votes berlusconi took in some areas in sicily? do you really think italy is a better democracy than iran? why don't the "human-right-police" invade us? Please, the majority of population would be happy! Why are we the good ones? my answer is simple (simplified?): we don't have oil.
our country is starting its nuclear program again, despite people's vote in 87 which obliged government to close all of the nuclear generators. why can our government go against people's will and why can't iran? Italy is the first commercial partner in europe of iran, so we must be the bad guys too.
Iran needs to bring oil prices much higher than the what they are now, to spread wellness and keep population happy, so they're talking (since some years) about opening stock exchange to trade oil in different currencies than $. The same Saddam was talking about...what a coincidence! Don't you think it's enough to "find" WDMs in Iran? When will people stop to believe all of the crap they see on tv?

Don't patronize. Sorry to disappoint you that I'm not falling in line with the usual love-fest for Iran here. I know how much that cuts across the grain of the peakoil.com demographic who see things in such simplistic black-hat-white-hat ways.

BTW, if you want to start cataloging a the usual tired list of "evil acts" of the countries involved, make sure you factor this one in, m'kay?



We're not planning an invasion of Iran. I'm sure there are contingencies, but that is not our current plan that I can see. Of course, if you get all your news from sites like GlobalResearch, it's understandable you'd be on the edge of your seat waiting for this.



There are plenty of scenarios which could escalate into a nuclear conflict. See the cuban missile crisis or the various close-calls between Pakistan and India for example. It doesn't have to be an overt plan for a first-strike. Once both sides have nukes in their arsenal there are going to be potential trigger-points for a nuclear exchange.



It's not about making a value judgment about a culture. It's about the world becoming less and less safe as known enemies face off nuke against nuke. It's statistics. The statistical odds of nukes being used go up.



Oil producer countries should not hide behind the "you just hate me because I have oil you want" meme.



Iran is a signatory to the NPT. It can develop civilian nuclear technology with proper oversight. You and others like you would rather decide which signed international treaties are worth enforcing and which are not on a case by case basis. I don't think it's unreasonable to ask Iran to live up to its international obligations, and if not, for there to be ramifications. If the Iraq war with the "coalition of the willing" was illegal, then international legality matters does it not? So let's be even-handed as we judge the conduct of countries on the world stage.





I think they already have their own oil bourse. That's what the "iran cable cut" was supposed to disrupt wasn't it Nobody cares about that one way or the other. THey can do what they want.



Again, you display your bias. You are superimposing the Iraq situation onto Iran. The two are not identical. If anything, Iran is EXPLOITING the Iraq experience as a way to gain immunity to cause a lot of trouble.

A much stronger case can be made that Iran is building nukes than was ever true of Iraq. There may not be a smoking gun, but it's really smoldering now.

Besides, you are also making two mutually exclusive arguments. You are saying on the one hand that Iran SHOULD be allowed to have nuclear weapons (despite the NPT), and you're also saying that there is no evidence they ARE pursuing nuclear weapons. The second argument implies that it is legitimate to be concerned about WMDs in Iran. The first scoffs at such concerns.


You think it's just the US and Israel that want to bully Iran?

Iran is at the tail end of alienating all its remaining allies.

Russia, West closer on Iran sanctions: lawmaker

wait and see.

i see you believe in what the news tell you to believe. I can understand it from a person who don't live on his skin the power of news.
i'm not trying to convince you.

I've BEEN waiting, for like 6+ years now.

Mos, Thanks for your contribution here. It has led to a lively discussion! Here is the latest on the Iran nuclear issue:

Chances good for China to yield on Iran sanctions: experts



yahoo

And more:

Saudi FM al-Faisal doubts Iran sanctions plans



bbc

Iran Policy Now More in Sync With Clinton’s Views



nytimes

Sanction Iran's Oil



huffingtonpost

I really can't fanthom why Iran didn't get their house in order concerning oil refinement before they went down the nuclear road. It seem's if sanctions do happen at some point Iran will hurt very badly.

Iran nuclear missile fear raised by UN report



BBC

Russia urges Iran to cooperate on nuclear issue



reuters

Are you U.S. citizen or taxpayer? The operational plans for every major military scenario are always on the table and being constantly updated, that's the "benefit" of having multi trillion mil-industrial complex based government in place. The important question is IF and/or WHEN the "go" signal is implemented..

Besides it has been strategized numerous times by more knowledgable people in these matters, that most likely any eventuality like this will be wrapped in nice and tidy PR package, ala rescuing the lonely island of democracy and peace in the ME region, .. , it's endless list of possible trigger events, real or prefabricated, ..

Planning means the decision to actually do it has been made, like in the hand moving the piece in the game of chess rather than mentally trying out every different move. I see no compelling evidence the US is reaching over to move its piece and attack the other side.

Pulling out the whole neocon warchest of Iraq and WMDs, etc... is just hyperbole of the sort that brought us "ZOMG: Iran Cable Cut!"

The Instant Sanctions come to the fore, That's the Declaration of
War and it's the Only Declaration the American Peaople will get anymore.

Probably in that form:

Nuclear Verification: Helping To Find A Needle In A Hay Stack



redorbit

Iran and the Myth of Deterrence



huffingtonpost

Iran to cooperate with IAEA, continue talks



reuters