I saw this over on LATOC. I'm using a backup puter and I think my adobe is screwy.. anyhow, I try the .pdf link and I get a "file is corrupted or damage" message.

Can anyone else access that pdf? Can you paste the text here?

The Peak Oil Debate
Laurel Graefe*
For the past half-century, a debate has raged over when “peak oil” will occur—the
point at which output can no longer increase and production begins to level off or
gradually decline. Determining how long the oil supply will last has become even
more pressing because the world’s energy supply still relies heavily on oil, and
global energy demand is expected to rise steeply over the next twenty years.
This article seeks to bring the peak oil debate into focus. The author notes
that a number of factors cloud the energy outlook: Estimates of remaining
resources are typically given as a range of probabilities and are thus open to
interpretation. Variations also occur in estimates of future oil production and
in the ways countries report their reserve data.
The lack of a common definitional framework also confuses the debate. The
author provides definitions of frequently used terms, delineating types of reserves
and conventional versus nonconventional resources. She also discusses how technological
innovations, government policies, and prices influence oil production.
Regardless of the exact timing of peak oil production, the world must address
the challenge of adapting to a new model of energy supply. Perhaps the world
would be better served, the author notes, if the peak oil debate could be more
solution-oriented, focusing on discovering the best way to transition to a world with
less conventional oil rather than locking horns about discrepancies in terminology.

* The author is a senior economic research analyst in the Atlanta Fed’s research department

It is 16 pages long, this is the intro paragraph

Thanks anador. I'll have to wait until I'm at another pc to read the whole report.

But wow.. isn't this sort of significant? Who would have ever thought the FED of all places would come out with a report saying the same old stuff us "tinfoilers" have been throwing around for a long time now.

The part I quoted even shows the Fed is aware of the real problem here -- whether or not we can adapt fast enough.

I can see the day coming when the peak oil debate goes the same way that global warming did, with TPTB saying the time for debate is over and measures must be enacted before its too late.

You need to upgrade to the newest version of Adobe Acrobat. Then you'll be able to read that PDF.

That is significant ... even though it's written by a mere research analyst with the Atlanta Fed's research dept.

Anybody who thinks that the problem is finding and transitioning to "substitutes" for oil doesn't understand the problem.

That would be a "Senior Economic Research Analyst" to you, Mr. Warrior! That's the level of analyst that writes this kind of report. Don't forget that it's vetted by even higher level people at the FRB Atlanta Research Department. It's about as high level as you get from the Federal Reserve system.


Of course, we knew we were in trouble in this report when the first footnote is quoting CERA:

Without mentioning that CERA's price predictions have been abysmal and they've recently acknowledged that we're probably at peak now.

And gotta love that last line:

As in "I couldn't be bothered to read the Energy Department's Hirsch report." Or maybe, "OK, I read the Hirsch report, but it didn't give me the happy platitudes that CERA has been giving, so it's just more squabbling."

I just wish the pointyheads at the Federal Reserve could be brought up on charges when the Hirsch report is eventually shown to be right. That zero growth / shrinking economy is really going to bite for the banksters.

Negative batman. Manmade global warming is just an alias for peak oil. Should the mainstream unleash the reality of peaking oil supplies the tidal wave of lies will come crashing down. A 5 year old putting 2 brain cells together could figure out we are in the Middle East for oil, compound that lie with the destruction of the US constitution by the Patriot Act et al and the sheep will put 2 and 2 together. The terorists are us, the troops are being staged and when the time is right - BOOM! - martial law and the arrival of a permanent police state most likely enforced in the US by foreign (Chinese? African?) troops operating under the UN. The very same people who pulled manmade global warming out of their hat and made it the worlds number one priority.

"In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill. The real enemy [of the elites and their minions] then is humanity itself.”

From “The First Global Revolution” (1991) published by the Club of Rome. Members of the Club of Rome include: Al Gore, Jimmy Carter, Bill Gates, George Soros and author of the Kyoto Protocols Maurice Strong.

"In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way." Franklin D. Roosevelt - Illuminati

Ok so if I'm hearing you right, you're saying that the US has all these troups "in position" in the middle east, just waiting for new world order to be declared and Chinese and African troops will take over Omaha and Des Moines. That right?

Though you have a point about the global warming.. I would believe your theory, save for the fact I don't see China ever slowing down their industry come hell or high water.

Maybe the UN troops coming to America will speak Spanish, maybe it will be Blackwaters but long before that happens America will be left to fester, thus creating the need. Only if and when some organized threat manifests in America will troops be brought in to quell the restless natives. Otherwise the economic siege will suffice, before long the people will be clamouring for a "world government".

China is no doubt the prototypical nation for the NWO and will play a big part in helping to secure the ME oil under the guise of a UN "peacekeeping" missions. Picking up any household item in America today and looking for the "Made in China" stamp is the only proof required to illustrate they are and will be the industrial engine of the world. They will also be mass producing the microchips to be implanted in every human slave. When you consider the fact China called for IMF SDR's to back a new world currency it is easy to see they have a seat at the roundtable.

Just my opinion though but it is starting to look rather obvious just by scanning the mainstream headlines everyday, it is all laid out before our very eyes except for the time line but there seems to be quite a rush in the last 10 years to implement the plan. So much information is now available about the NWO and easily fact checked it almost seems as if some in the know are either having second thoughts or getting us prepared?

Who knows, it might take another 50 years before the goal is reached but that is what the totalitarian tip-toe is all about, we just don't notice it. Could you imagine going back in time 50 years and asking a typical American on the street how they would feel about something like the Patriot Act? That they could be detained indefinitely without charge for just being a "suspected" terrorist? The Military Commissions Act? What about 100 years ago and ask them how they would feel about a private banking cartel called "the Fed" being in charge of their economy? Just a blink of the eye in geological time but several generations in human time, in reality - all happening rather quickly.

Does the author mean gradually decline, as in a few less barrels here and there? I thought on a worldwide scale, it'd be in the thousands of barrels of decline, nothing gradual. Am I wrong?

Exponential Curve.

the first few years of the curve would seem pretty flat.... after that

It all depends on how fast we can move away from oil. Which I hazard to say... not at all.

Up till this point we have been able to come up with newer and newer sources of oil, which has been keeping oil supplies at a somewhat constant rate given our continually increasing thirst for it. However, once they can no longer tap a new well oil supplies will tumble. After that we will rush to the bottom, however our need for oil will not slow down, but only increase. At this point, we reach "fucked stage"

Well, remember this is a report coming from TPTB, so by nature it's conservative on the Doom scale -- I for one am just impressed the Fed has recognized the reality of peak oil. So anyway, you have to read between the lines the way you would with anything else that comes out of the Fed. The author (staff researcher) concludes that big question is rather we can adapt fast enough to declining oil.

She doesn't speculate beyond that, and doesn't need to -- we all know the consequences.