So predictable. I gave you exactly what you asked for, only to have you find some other way to minimize its importance.



And you obviously did not read the chart carefully if you think it shows Canada having more reserves than the rest of the world put together. You can read the source here and observe the caption above the graph.


Last edited by OilFinder2 on Sat Feb 13, 2010 11:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

How about this one...how dare reserves keep climbing even after consumption!!! Such discoveries...happening for decades now....must be impossible because...because....it conflicts with my BELIEFS!!

Colin using censored graphs says we should have run out already!!! How dare you contradict a Prophet of the Movement!

You chart is a joke Oily. You chart stink. You chart lie. And Pstarr can't even add well enough to realize that Canada doesn't have more reserves than the rest of the world put together....perhaps addition isn't one of those required courses for Internet Surfing Editing Scientists.

When you are done converting your gunk into oil reserves, then you might want to start in on leaf litter and my compost heap. And then don't forget all the forests and lawns in the world.

After all, these "unconventional" fossil fuels all have about the same proportion of carbon hydrogen and oxygen.

We've been through this last year. From IHS data, OF's discoveries have been much over-estimated and the oil companies have not found anywhere near what is being produced, each year, for a long time.

What the cornies are hoping is that reserve growth can keep the obvious from happening for a very long time, despite country after country hitting the decline phase.

That P95 reserves chart is funny. It's amazing how reserve additions can keep pace, almost exactly, with production for long periods of years.

It isn't funny...its just data, and its been studied, and the volumes involved weren't funny, and certainly it is interesting enough that scientists have studied it for awhile now.

TOD uses some good figures from this paper when talking about it.

http://aapgbull.geoscienceworld.org/cgi ... /89/8/1033

Your statement is akin to saying:

"Its amazing how the sun keeps riding in the east, almost always, and its been doing it for long periods of years."

Just because its what reserves DO doesn't make it funny...it certainly can't continue forever, but in the meantime, it sure lends credence to the arguments of the economists.

Hah. It's nothing like it. The sun-earth system is subject to physical forces that allow such a predicted behaviour, without human intervention. That reserve additions (which takes human driven discoveries and field reassessments) can keep almost exact pace with production for long periods of time, is a completely different situation. The graph also has a couple of fairly abrupt discontinuities where reserves suddenly lurch up, followed by another stable period. If you think that seems fairly reasonable, then that's up to you. The rest of us live in the real world.

And the conversion of resource into economic inventory is also predicted behavior, dating back to at least 1960 in the modern literature, and probably farther than that if I wanted to investigate farther, and its the result of human intervention because economic development is inherently human.



Admittedly, it isn't based on the laws of physics rather than economics, but I'm not surprised in the least. Its inventory. Humans don't need 100 years of economic inventory at any one point in time, the market, and by extension humans, seem to be happy with 10 or 20. From such an effect, it follows that of COURSE additions to inventory would track time.



Lurching upward is also completely reasonable, particularly if a large resource has suddenly changed category from "resource" to "economic inventory".

The Orinoco all by itself could cause exactly such an effect, sometime in the future. So could heavy oil developments in Russia. And when someone puts a practical application for the conversion of hydrates from resource to reserve, WATCH out.

You want to enlighten me on that one please? I'm serious. Have not heard about huge Russian heavy oil reserves.

My suspicion is that this analysis is light on volume.

http://www.rigzone.com/training/heavyoi ... p?i_id=193

I can't find anything from the experts who do these sorts of things for a living, so until they come out with an estimate ( like they recently did on the Orinoco ) its difficult to tell who is closer to being right.

Oh boy, you're still trying to pretend that the two statements are similar. It's incredible. The actual time of the sun rise and set can be calculated very precisely, ahead of time. Reserve additions are subject to all sorts of factors that are unpredictable. Or perhaps you think those factors are entirely predictable and almost certain to lead to additions that match production for long periods, with each period preceded by a large upward revision? If you do, you are just trolling. I didn't say they didn't track time (whatever that means), I said that keeping reserves constant over long periods is a feat worthy of great adulation (which you would, no doubt provide). Of course you're not surprised. I'm not surprised that you're not surprised. That doesn't make it reasonable, of course.

I see your finally figuring it out Tony! Welcome aboard.

Hmmm "heavy" sounds like the Russian code word for tarsands IMHO. Maybe not, but I found this article and they refer to the bitumen as "heavy oil" a few times. I also found this terminology in several other Russian energy info/pubs concerning the same resource.

http://www.oilandgaseurasia.com/article ... ticle/556/

"The history of bitumen extraction in Tatarstan, which accounts for 65 percent of Russia’s annual heavy oil production, dates to the mid-19th century when the construction industry began mining the first bituminous rock outcroppings.

The first major scientific exploration of Tatarstan’s oil sands took place over 1928 to 1930 when Soviet geophysicists studied the Sugushlinsk field on the River Sheshma River and confirmed the presence of 5.4 mln t of hydrocarbons over a 0.55 square kilometer area. But by the 1970s, interest in bitumen production fell off as the Soviet oil industry focused on developing the more easily and cheaply produced West Siberian crude."

Exactly. And yet at the macro level, they behave in a strangely predictable way.



How nice of you to decide that anyone who disagree's with you can't be doing so for completely logical reasons. Such refreshing objectivity.

To explain, correlations in behavior are not always visible at a given level within a system. For example, a factor which you appear to be considering predictable is price. Yet price is not really predictable....and its changes do not correlate well with the steadily increasing reserves with respect to time. The predictability shows up at the macro level, even given the wildly variable pieces contained within the system.

In examining the system (changes in reserves with respect to time), if the macro effects are well behaved, even if the component parts are not, then it is reasonable to try and predict the macro behavior. Peakers do it off of production rates all the time....proving once again how a reasonable idea can be misused. I said that predicting these macro level changes is completely reasonable, and it certainly doesn't require predicting all the component parts.




Adulation isn't required to note that this effect has been going on about as long as the information has been tracked. Call it 30 years now. What do you call a LONG time? 3 decades works for me.

Indeed, but it's a near certainty that many of the claimed reserve figures, probably including Ghawar, are lies. If you think all the claims are accurate, then you are a gullible person.

Significant Oil Discovery Reported In Weld County (Colorado)

^
I was thinking about starting a thread on that one. It's basically (yet) another Bakken, this time in Colorado (and probably Wyoming, too). EOG drilled a pretty good well there in 2008, I've been waiting to hear more about it. A well with an IP rate of 1700 bpd will certainly give it a lot of attention.

A few weeks ago in this thread I told shortonsense I was debating whether to categorize a 1+ billion barrel OIP resource estimate in Colorado as a discovery. I am nearly certain that was also the same formation (the Niobrara shale).

Forget if I posted this here: AAPG Discovery Data . It's a spreadsheet I put together from data in the EXPLORER bulletin, every January they publish a list of the big wildcats worldwide as reported by IHS. Usually they do, that is; '03 and '05 (I think) are missing. Tried to look for correlations between these and megaprojects to see if any info could be gleaned regarding how likely discoveries are turned into real production, but very few correspondences turned up; perhaps many projects have different names from the test wells, or the names differ just enough to matter. Or most discoveries just get tucked away for decades. Dunno!

Anyway, peruse at your leisure. Big pain in the butt putting it all together. It's an Open Office .ods spreadsheet, if that's a problem I can upload an .xls version.

Surprising where the action is, too. Who knew there was so much oil in Poland? For which they may be north of 30 kb/d by now.

The article says this is a 1 billion barrel OIP field but estimates about a 30% recovery rate

Size of discovery: 300 million barrels recoverable
Date: February 15, 2010
Company(s): Petroleum Development Oman
Name: Al Ghubar South
Location: Oman
API: "heavy"
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 2.165 billion barrels minimum to 3.095 barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 1.2 billion barrels minimum to 3.7 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Oman Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Al Ghubar South - 300 million barrels - 02/10

Size of discovery: 65 million barrels recoverable in 2 seperate zones
Date: February 25, 2010
Company(s): Petrobras
Name: Addition/extension to Barracuda
Location: Campos Basin, offshore Brazil
API: 28
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 2.23 billion barrels minimum to 3.16 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 1.2 billion barrels minimum to 3.7 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Brazil Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Papa-Terra - 700 million - 1 billion barrels - 12/05
Xerelete - 1.4 billion barrels - 7/07
Tupi - 5-8 billion barrels - 11/07
Golfinho - 150 million barrels - 7/08
Iara - 3-4 billion barrels - 10/08
Additions to Jubarte - 1.9 billion barrels - 10/08
Tiro - 150 million barrels - 10/08
Sub-salt layers of Baleia Franca, Baleia Azul, and Jubarte - 1.5-2 billion barrels - 11/08
Aruana - 280 million barrels - 8/09
Guara - 1.1-2 billion barrels - 09/09
Vesuvio - 500 million - 1.5 billion barrels - 10/09
Caricoa - 681 million barrels - 11/09
Well OGX-2A - 400-500 million barrels - 11/09
Addition to Marimba - 25 million barrels - 11/09
Addition to Well OGX-2A - 600 million-1.5 billion barrels - 12/09
Well OGX-4-RUS - 100-200 million barrels - 02/10
Well 1-OGX-3-RJS - 500-900 million barrels - 02/10
Well 4-PM-53 - 25 million barrels - 02/10
Additions to Barracuda - 65 million barrels - 2/10

Size of discovery: 30-90 million barrels recoverable
Date: February 25, 2010
Company(s): OGX
Name: Maastrichtian section of Well OGX-5
Location: Campos Basin, offshore Brazil
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 2.26 billion barrels minimum to 3.25 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 1.2 billion barrels minimum to 3.7 billion barrels maximum

-------------------------------------------------------

Brazil Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Papa-Terra - 700 million - 1 billion barrels - 12/05
Xerelete - 1.4 billion barrels - 7/07
Tupi - 5-8 billion barrels - 11/07
Golfinho - 150 million barrels - 7/08
Iara - 3-4 billion barrels - 10/08
Additions to Jubarte - 1.9 billion barrels - 10/08
Tiro - 150 million barrels - 10/08
Sub-salt layers of Baleia Franca, Baleia Azul, and Jubarte - 1.5-2 billion barrels - 11/08
Aruana - 280 million barrels - 8/09
Guara - 1.1-2 billion barrels - 09/09
Vesuvio - 500 million - 1.5 billion barrels - 10/09
Caricoa - 681 million barrels - 11/09
Well OGX-2A - 400-500 million barrels - 11/09
Addition to Marimba - 25 million barrels - 11/09
Addition to Well OGX-2A - 600 million-1.5 billion barrels - 12/09
Well OGX-4-RUS - 100-200 million barrels - 02/10
Well 1-OGX-3-RJS - 500-900 million barrels - 02/10
Well 4-PM-53 - 25 million barrels - 02/10
Additions to Barracuda - 65 million barrels - 2/10
Maastrichtian section of Well OGX-5 - 30-90 million barrels - 2/10