Aleklett: Australia highly vulnerable to oil shortages
June 12, 2009 --ASPO International president, Professor Kjell Aleklett of the Global Energy Systems group at Uppsala University has been in Australia over the past week, presenting lectures in Adelaide and Sydney on peak oil.
ASPO Australia has copies of 2 presentations done in Adelaide - “Energy: The Challenge To Sustainability” (ppt) and “Peak oil, peak gas and peak coal: Setting the scene for future supply problems” (ppt). ...
Professor Aleklett addressed the NSW electric car task force and the Federal Government’s Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics yesterday. He had earlier warned a Senate committee that the International Energy Agency had wildly overestimated oil production, lulling nations such as Australia into a false sense of security. Rather than oil production rising by 20 per cent to 101.5 million barrels a day in 2030, he says production is likely to fall 11 per cent, to just 76 million barrels a day.
Last week the chairman of Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, Eric Streitberg, predicted peak oil - the maximum rate of global oil extraction before decline - was just three years away, and forecast prices of up to $200 a barrel. ...
He also said Sweden and other European countries were developing a network of recharging stations to handle the growth of electric cars, although Australia, with its vast distances, posed a greater challenge for electric vehicle manufacturers.

Rather than oil production rising by 20 per cent to 101.5 million barrels a day in 2030, he says production is likely to fall 11 per cent, to just 76 million barrels a day.

Did a double take here because I couldn't believe you're presenting yourself as an authority. Here's an alternate forecast I found while googling yours: But what does Ace know? From Updated World Oil Forecasts, including Saudi Arabia .
Not that any of us are authorities in these matters, but those in the know aren't sending these hit the snooze button messages you're promoting. They're calling for immediate action even in the face of 2% declines. They really aren't touting extra gentle declines simply because it's what they want to see happen. Talk about delusional...

He was misquoted, by ca. 21 mb/d; his forecast is for 55.1 mb/d in 2030, so you can go back to dismissing him as a pessimistic crank.

You on the other hand I dismiss as a nitpicking troll, who puts up a blog entry about an IEA pronouncement forecasting a slight decline in demand and complains about peak oilers having nothing to say about anything that contravenes their established beliefs - this a day after Leanan posted the exact story both here and at TOD.

PDF at ASPO Australia, Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas . Incidentally Freddy Hutter's tabulation on long term forecasts handed the gold ring to Laherrère for his 1997 call of 85 mb/d for 2008 vs 85.5 mb/d actual. TrendLines Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios Chart .

Don't give a shit about Ace's forecasts. His modeling appears sloppy,